Alerte Tunisie: Indicateurs au rouge

Publié par Eco-Tunisie sur 25 Mai 2012, 13:48pm

Notation de la Tunisie en 2011



Fitch a maintenu la notation des émissions en devises de la Tunisie à « BBB » en la mettant

sous surveillance négative.

Moody’s a dégradé à « Baa3 » la note de la dette souveraine de la Tunisie avec perspective négative.

R & I : a abaissé la notation de la Tunisie a « BBB » en la plaçant sous surveillance négative.

S&P : a mis sous surveillance négative la notation de la Tunisie avec perspective négative

 en raison des incertitudes persistantes. La notation de la monnaie locale est révisée à la baisse « BBB+ ».

Le 23 Mai 2012, Standard and Poor's abaisse de deux crans la note de la dette à long terme de la Tunisie à BB.

 La Tunisie est ainsi reléguée dans la catégorie spéculatif et la note est assortie d'une perspective

stable n'annonçant donc pas de nouvelle modification pour le court terme. Les raisons de cette détérioration s'expliqueraient selon l'agence par l'incapacité du nouveau gouvernement de transition "de redresser suffisamment l'économie".

Issuer Credit Rating
Ratings	Rating Date	Regulatory Identifiers	Last Credit Rating Action
Foreign Long Term	BB	23-May-2012	EU	23-May-2012 Outlook STABLE
Foreign Short Term	B	23-May-2012	EU
Local Long Term	BB	23-May-2012	EU	23-May-2012 Outlook STABLE
Local Short Term	B	23-May-2012	EU
Transfer & Convertibility Assessment
Ratings	Rating Date	Regulatory Identifiers	Last Credit Rating Action
Local Long Term	BB+	23-May-2012	--

Communiqué de S&P

FRANKFURT (Standard & Poor's) May 23, 2012--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services 
today lowered its long- and short-term foreign currency sovereign credit 
ratings on the Republic of Tunisia to 'BB/B' from 'BBB-/A-3'. We lowered the 
long- and short-term local currency ratings to 'BB/B' from 'BBB/A-3'. The 
outlook is stable.

At the same time we lowered our long- and short-term foreign currency issuer 
credit ratings on the Central Bank of Tunisia to 'BB/B from 'BBB-/A-3' and 
lowered the long- and short-term local currency ratings to 'BB/B from 
'BBB/A-3'. The outlook is stable.

The recovery rating on the Central Bank of Tunisia is '3', indicating a 
"meaningful" recovery in case of default in the range of 50%-70%.

The transfer and convertibility (T&C) assessment is revised to 'BB+'.

Although overall political stability since the removal of President Ben Ali in 
early 2011 has stayed within our expectations, we do not believe that 
Tunisia's transitional government--in office since December 2011--will be able 
to take proactive corrective measures against a weakening economic and 
financial backdrop that would be consistent with an investment grade rating. 
However, once a draft constitution is approved by referendum and parliamentary 
elections take place (planned for no later than June 2013), we anticipate the 
new government will find its feet and that Tunisia's political and economic 
indicators will be more consistent with the 'BB' ratings category. Our stable 
outlook on the long-term ratings indicates that we believe the political 
transition should be smooth and the country should withstand potentially 
considerable external shocks emanating from Europe.


Tunisia's GDP contracted by 1.8% in real terms in 2011 (our previous 
projection was for zero growth; see "Sovereign Risk Indicators" published Dec. 
28, 2011). Lower tourism receipts and a widening trade deficit led to a weaker 
external liquidity position combined with a rising short-term external debt 
stock. We anticipate that recovery will be slow, particularly given the weak 
economic environment in the European Union--by far Tunisia's largest export 
market and source of foreign direct investment (FDI) and tourists. 
Unemployment has also risen sharply to be now estimated at more than 18%, 
since the January 2011 revolution.
Increased government spending to support domestic demand and livelihoods 
helped prevent Tunisia's 2011 recession from deepening, but it led to a sharp 
deterioration in the public finances. We now anticipate a general government 
deficit of close to 7.0% of GDP in 2012, higher than our previous forecast of 
3.9%. We expect fiscal consolidation to be gradual as economic and social 
conditions make a more rapid adjustment difficult, with the deficit still 
above 3.0% of GDP in 2015.

To fund this deficit, we believe general government debt will rise 
substantially to peak at 49% in 2013, from around 40% in 2010, before 
stabilizing and gradually declining thereafter. We believe that the 
government's access to official financing will remain strong as long as an 
elected government articulates a clear medium-term economic plan.
External liquidity has also suffered. Amid a collapse in tourism receipts in 
2011, the current account deficit widened sharply to around 7.5% of GDP (two 
percentage points higher than our previous forecast) and we anticipate that it 
will remain above 5.0% through to 2015. Both narrow net external debt and 
gross external financing needs have risen sharply relative to current account 
receipts (CARs) and official useable reserves. We project Tunisia's 2012 gross 
external financing needs as a proportion of CARs and useable reserves at 
around 109%, which we anticipate will be financed by public sector borrowing 
from official creditors, FDI, and an increase in private sector debt. We 
believe about $5.2 billion of short-term external debt, comprised mostly of 
non-resident deposits and trade-related credit, will be fully rolled over.


The ratings continue to be constrained by the country's fragile banking 
system, which we believe has weak asset quality (see "BICRA On Tunisia 
Maintained At Group '8'," Nov. 9, 2011). Domestic claims on the private sector 
grew by 13% in 2011 and we anticipate this to grow by a further 11% in 2012, 
in part due to widespread restructurings of principal and interest of loans.
With per capita GDP currently less than $5,000, Tunisia is a middle-income 
country with development needs that will stay high in the medium-to-long term, 
constraining fiscal expenditure flexibility.


Supporting the ratings are a relatively well-diversified economy and 
well-educated labor force, a broadly supportive business environment, 
increasing media freedoms, and improving accountability of state institutions.
The long-term local currency rating has been equalized with the foreign 
currency rating at 'BB', as we now do not expect significant progress in 
moving to a floating exchange rate regime from the current soft peg to a 
basket of currencies. Under our criteria, greater monetary policy independence 
is a condition for such a rating distinction.


The T&C assessment of 'BB+' reflects our opinion that the likelihood of the 
sovereign restricting access to foreign exchange needed by Tunisia-based 
nonsovereign issuers for debt service is slightly lower than the likelihood of 
the sovereign defaulting on its foreign-currency obligations. While the 
government has current account repatriation and foreign exchange surrender 
requirements in addition to other controls, they are being reduced. However, 
this process may cease or reverse in a severe downside scenario.
The '3' recovery rating on the Central Bank of Tunisia indicates a 
"meaningful" recovery in case of default in the range of 50%-70%. We assign 
recovery ratings to all rated speculative grade sovereigns that have a 
substantial amount of commercial debt outstanding. The recovery analysis 
assumes that Tunisia might default if high current account imbalances persist 
and the country's net external liability position rises significantly above 
its 2003 peak of nearly 240% of CARs, which we do not currently project. 
External funding could come under pressure if FDI remains constrained by 
political uncertainties, and the banks, which have significant short-term 
external debt, experience roll-over problems. Such developments might quickly 
lead to higher fiscal pressures.


The stable outlook reflects our view that, despite significant uncertainties, 
the ongoing transition to the scheduled 2013 elections will occur without 
major political conflict. The outlook also reflects our expectation that 
Tunisia's fiscal and external imbalances will stabilize and gradually 
rebalance over the next few years.


We could consider lowering the ratings if the external environment were to 
weaken beyond our already-pessimistic current expectations for Europe, which 
is Tunisia's major economic partner. Unexpected political conflicts or unrest 
on the transition path could also affect the ratings. Conversely, we could 
eventually raise the ratings if an elected government undertook policies that 
produce sustained and rapid growth that relieves Tunisia's high unemployment 
and pressing social needs and restores public finances and external accounts 
to a sounder footing.

Niveau de Notation	Moody’s	Standard & Poor’s	Fitch Ratings
Niveau de Notation	Notation long terme	Notation long terme	Notation long terme
Très bonne qualité	Aaa	AAA	AAA
Bonne qualité	Aa1	AA+	AA+
	Aa2	AA	AA
	Aa3	AA-	AA-
Qualité moyenne	A1	A+	A+
	A2	A	A
	A3	A-	A-
Qualité moyenne inférieure	Baa1	BBB+	BBB+
	Baa2	BBB	BBB
	Baa3	BBB-	BBB-
Qualité spéculative	Ba1	BB+	BB+
	Ba2	BB	BB
	Ba3	BB-	BB-
Qualité très spéculative	B1	B+	B+
	B2	B	B
	B3	B-	B
Risque important	Caa	CCC+	CCC
Risque très important	Ca	CCC
Possibilité de défaut	C	CCC-
Défaut	/	D	DDD / DD / D