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Tunisia: threaten level 1, Storm Forecast

Publié par Eco-Tunisie sur 13 Novembre 2012, 12:53pm

Catégories : #Divers

      Source: http://www.estofex.org/

 

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Storm Forecast
issued: Mon 12 Nov 2012 20:24

Tue 13 Nov 2012 06:00 -
Wed 14 Nov 2012 06:00 UTC

KOROSEC

Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 13 Nov 2012 06:00 to Wed 14 Nov 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 12 Nov 2012 20:24
Forecaster: KOROSEC

2012111406 201211122024 1 stormforecast.xml

A level 1 was issued for parts of SSW Mediterranean, N Algeria and N Tunisia mainly for excessive convective rainfalls, large hail, severe winds and tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS

A trough with history of flooding events across parts of the Mediterranean in the last days weakens and its cut off transformation on the south is finally complete. An intense upper low then rotating over northern Algeria and serves as a focus for another day of convective activity. A surface frontal zone lies in SSW Mediterranean sea. 

DISCUSSION

... parts of SSW Mediterranean, N Algeria and N Tunisia ...

An intense rainfall threat over central Italy finally dimishes and should end within the morning hours of this forecast. Active day remains around the upper low which wobbles over northern Algeria throughout much of the forecast period. A strong mid-level jet rounds the core of the low and provides moderate to strongly sheared environment along the frontal zone extending from the SFC centre low south of Malorca and curving SE-wards towards N Tunisia. Strong SE-erly WAA maintaining unstable airmass within the frontal zone. With cold midlevels over still very warm (positive SST) waters of Mediterranean, moderate to strong MLCAPE in excess of 1500-2000 J/kg should be available. Expect rounds of organized storms acting as multicells and supercells, including possible clusters. Bringing heavy rain and large hail threat, while strong wind field and shear supports tornado threat as well. Excessive rainfalls and flash floods possible within coastal areas of NW Algeria where combination of convective precipitation and orographic features simulate high accumulations.

Activity gradually diminishes overnight to Wednesday when slowly shifting SE-wards. Maintaining a high-end level 1 due to threat mainly over open waters, while upgrade to level 2 remains possible for WSW parts if needed.

Elsewhere, no severe threat expected

http://essl.org/cgi-bin/eswd/eswd.cgi

 table of all selected reports

number of selected reports: 27

This table only lists the last 25 reports. (historique des prévisions)

severe wind

 

Skanes  Al Munastīr 
Tunisia (35.67 N, 10.75 E)
10-03-2012  (Saturday)   12:00 UTC 

based on: information from a report by a weather service, a report on a website
intensity and characteristics: F0 T1 
the intensity rating was based on severe wind.
wind speed: 27.3 m/s
accompanying weather: light or moderate rain.
direction of movement: N-S
ws report; reported v. OGIMET.com, 10 MAR 2012;

report status: plausibility check passed (QC0+)

contact: Thilo Kühne (ESWD management) [e-mail]

heavy rain

 

Medenine  Madanīn 
Tunisia (33.35 N, 10.51 E)
10-03-2012  (Saturday)   06:00 UTC 

based on: information from a report by a weather service, a report on a website
24 hour accumulated precipitation: 64.0 mm
ws report; reported v. OGIMET.com, 10 MAR 2012;

report status: plausibility check passed (QC0+)

contact: Thilo Kühne (ESWD management) [e-mail]

heavy rain

 

Tabarka  Jundūbah 
Tunisia (36.95 N, 8.76 E)
22-02-2012  (Wednesday)   18:00 UTC 

based on: information from a report by a weather service, a report on a website
24 hour accumulated precipitation: 71.0 mm
ws report; reported v. OGIMET.com; 22 FEB 2012;

report status: plausibility check passed (QC0+)

contact: Thilo Kühne (ESWD management) [e-mail]

heavy rain

 

Béja  Bājah 
Tunisia (36.73 N, 9.18 E)
22-02-2012  (Wednesday)   18:00 UTC 

based on: information from a report by a weather service, a report on a website
24 hour accumulated precipitation: 57.8 mm
ws report; reported v. OGIMET.com; 22 FEB 2012;

report status: plausibility check passed (QC0+)

contact: Thilo Kühne (ESWD management) [e-mail]

heavy rain

 

El Kef  Kef 
Tunisia (36.18 N, 8.71 E)
22-02-2012  (Wednesday)   18:00 UTC 

based on: information from a report by a weather service, a report on a website
24 hour accumulated precipitation: 58.0 mm
ws report; reported v. OGIMET.com; 22 FEB 2012;

report status: plausibility check passed (QC0+)

contact: Thilo Kühne (ESWD management) [e-mail]

heavy rain

 

Tabarka  Jundūbah 
Tunisia (36.95 N, 8.76 E)
30-10-2011  (Sunday)   18:00 UTC 

based on: information from a report by a weather service, a report on a website
precipitation: 108.0 mm
duration of precipitation: 15 hours
ws report; reported v. OGIMET; 30 OCT 2011;

report status: plausibility check passed (QC0+)

contact: Thilo Kühne (ESWD management) [e-mail]

heavy rain

 

Bizerte  Banzart 
Tunisia (37.27 N, 9.87 E)
30-10-2011  (Sunday)   18:00 UTC 

based on: information from a report by a weather service, a report on a website
12 hour accumulated precipitation: 53.0 mm
ws report; reported v. OGIMET; 30 OCT 2011;

report status: plausibility check passed (QC0+)

contact: Thilo Kühne (ESWD management) [e-mail]

heavy rain

 

Carthago  Tūnis 
Tunisia (36.85 N, 10.33 E)
30-10-2011  (Sunday)   18:00 UTC 

based on: information from a report by a weather service, a report on a website
24 hour accumulated precipitation: 80.8 mm
ws report; reported v. OGIMET; 30 OCT 2011;

report status: plausibility check passed (QC0+)

contact: Thilo Kühne (ESWD management) [e-mail]

heavy rain

 

Béja  Bājah 
Tunisia (36.73 N, 9.18 E)
30-10-2011  (Sunday)   18:00 UTC 

based on: information from a report by a weather service, a report on a website
precipitation: 56.0 mm
duration of precipitation: 18 hours
ws report; reported v. OGIMET; 30 OCT 2011;

report status: plausibility check passed (QC0+)

contact: Thilo Kühne (ESWD management) [e-mail]

large hail

 

mouroug  
GP1 mouroug 
Tunisia (0.00 N, 0.00 E)
10-06-2010  (Thursday)   17:10 UTC (+/- 15 min.)

based on: information from an eye-witness report
maximum hail diameter: 20 cm
average hail diameter: 10 cm
hailstone properties: stones with rings, aggregates.
damage to property: Significant damage to car windows
damage to crops and forests: big
80 % solar panel destroy i will post some pictures later.

report status: as received (QC0)

contact: nejmeddine abdeljelil [e-mail]

severe wind

 

نابل‎ / Nābul  Nābul 
Tunisia (36.45 N, 10.73 E)
11-02-2010  (Thursday)   06:00 UTC 

based on: information from a report by a weather service, a report on a website
intensity and characteristics: F0 T1 
wind speed: 25.2 m/s
direction of movement: NW-SE
ws synop report; reported v. Ogimet;

report status: report confirmed (QC1)

contact: Thilo Kühne (ESWD management) [e-mail]

severe wind

 

Bizerte  Banzart 
Tunisia (37.27 N, 9.87 E)
14-01-2010  (Thursday)   12:00 UTC (+/- 6 hrs.)

based on: information from a report by a weather service, a report on a website
intensity and characteristics: F0 T1 
wind speed: 29.3 m/s
direction of movement: NW-SE
source: ws synop report; OGIMET, Tunisia; 14.01.2010;

report status: plausibility check passed (QC0+)

contact: Thilo Kühne (ESWD management) [e-mail]

severe wind

 

Carthage  Tūnis 
Tunisia (36.85 N, 10.33 E)
14-01-2010  (Thursday)   12:00 UTC (+/- 6 hrs.)

based on: information from a report by a weather service, a report on a website
intensity and characteristics: F0 T1 
wind speed: 25.8 m/s
direction of movement: SSW-NNE
source: ws synop report; OGIMET, Tunisia, 14.01.2010;

report status: plausibility check passed (QC0+)

contact: Thilo Kühne (ESWD management) [e-mail]

heavy rain

 

Redeyef  Gafsa 
Tunisia (34.38 N, 8.15 E)
23-09-2009  (Wednesday)   03:00 UTC (+/- 6 hrs.)

based on: information from a newspaper report, a report on a website
number of people dead: 17
17 people killed by sudden floods caused by heavy rainfall; source: "Maltempo in Tunisia, 17 morti, Redeyef in ginocchio", AGI /meteoweb.it, 23.09.2009; 

report status: report confirmed (QC1)

contact: Thilo Kühne (ESWD management) [e-mail]

large hail

 

Houmt Souk  
Tunisia (33.88 N, 10.86 E)
01-10-2008  (Wednesday)   19:00 UTC (+/- 15 min.)

based on: information from 
maximum hail diameter: 4 cm
average hail diameter: 3 cm
hailstone properties: stones with rings, porous stones.
event duration at place of observation: 10 mins.

report status: as received (QC0)

contact: observation on my own [e-mail]

large hail

 

Sfax  Şafāqis 
Tunisia (34.74 N, 10.76 E)
01-10-2008  (Wednesday)   10:00 UTC (+/- 6 hrs.)

based on: information from a newspaper report, a report on a website
hailfall report; damages to agriculture reported; source: GLOBAL NET, 03.10.2008; http://www.gnet.tn/revue-de-presse-nationale/pluies-diluvien nes-et-chute-de-greles-a-sfax/id-menu-958.html

report status: as received (QC0)

contact: Thilo Kühne, ESWD management [e-mail]

heavy rain

 

Tunis  
Tunisia (36.80 N, 10.18 E)
01-04-2008  (Tuesday)   00:00 UTC 

based on: information from a report by a weather service
12 hour accumulated precipitation: 44 mm
Synop report of 60715

report status: plausibility check passed (QC0+)

contact: Norbert Rupsch [e-mail]

large hail

 

Dahmani  Kef 
Tunisia (35.95 N, 8.83 E)
30-07-2005  (Saturday)   10:00 UTC (+/- 12 hrs.)

based on: information from a report by a weather service, a report on a website
hailfall reported; source: BAB EL WEB, 31.07.2005; http://www.bab-el-web.com/home/Lire-article-all?=&a=1030 004&t=1

report status: report confirmed (QC1)

contact: Thilo Kühne, ESWD management [e-mail]

tornado

 

Kelibia  
Several cities were hit in Tunisia : Kélibia, Haouaria, Hammamet and with less damages, Béni Khalled, Nabeul, Grombalia et Bouargoub. 
Tunisia (36.85 N, 11.08 E)
13-11-2004  (Saturday)   14:45 UTC (+/- 15 min.)

based on: information from photo or video of the event, a newspaper report, photograph(s) and/or video footage of the inflicted damage, a report on a website
occurring over: rural area (crops, grassland, both or unknown), town or city, sea
intensity and characteristics: F2 
wind speed: 39 m/s
The funnel cloud was observed.
accompanying weather: heavy rain.
path length: 85 km
direction of movement: NE-SW
number of people injured: 60
number of people dead: 9
People were thrown in the air by the tornado (50 meters above the ground). They 'planned' during many seconds before falling down. 3 people in a pick-up were sucked up by the tornado! Pets were thrown in the air too (cats, dogs, cows, poultry....). Houses were snatched away ; roofs torn off ; many large trees were snapped or uprooted ; many cars or trucks were damaged ; walls cracked ; object missiles were generated. Flood occured also in cities (Nabeul). Total damages are invaluable for the present.. Photos and video of the tornado are available (see sources and links below).

report status: plausibility check passed (QC0+)

contact: submitted by Sébastien Poitevin (ESTOFEX) - - Sources & photos : http://www.flickr.com/photos/mousehunter/ ; http://www.rundom.com/karim2k/archives/2004_11.html ; http://www.realites.com.tn/index1.php?mag=1&cat=/61CULTU RE%20ET%20SOCIETE&art=10804&a=detail1 - Other informations and video of the event was available here : http://spoitevin.free.fr/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=69 ; http://www.membres.lycos.fr/oberontempest/videos/tornade_kel ibia.mpeg [e-mail]

tornado

 

Rakkada  
Rakkada, a locality belonging to Kairouan-Sud. 
Tunisia (35.66 N, 10.10 E)
13-11-2004  (Saturday)   11:50 UTC (+/- 5 min.)

based on: information from a newspaper report
occurring over: town or city
intensity and characteristics: F2 
The funnel cloud was not observed.
number of people injured: 21
Here are details about damage done by the tornado. Source : La Presse (Tunis) : "Violente tornade à Rakkada 15 Novembre 2004 Publié sur le web le 15 Novembre 2004 Une violente tornade s'est abattue sur la localité de Rakkada (Kairouan-Sud) samedi 13 novembre à 12h50mn et a causé d'énormes dégâts matériels et humains. Le tourbillon était tellement fort que des arbres géants ont été déracinés, des toitures de maisons et de boutiques arrachées, des fenêtres en fer forgé endommagées ainsi que des véhicules. En outre, on déplore 21 personnes blessées, immédiatement évacuées vers l'unité de chirurgie «Les Aghlabides» où elles ont été soignées. Trois d'entre elles, jugées dans un état grave, sont toujours hospitalisées."

report status: plausibility check passed (QC0+)

contact: submitted by Sébastien Poitevin (ESTOFEX), - Source : La Presse (Tunis), newspaper of Tunis, at http://fr.allafrica.com/stories/200411150607.html . [e-mail]

large hail

 

Thyna  Safaqis 
Tunisia (34.71 N, 10.60 E)
15-05-2002  (Wednesday)   10:00 UTC (+/- 6 hrs.)

based on: information from a report in scientific literature, a report on a website
up to 835 birds found dead after strong hailstorm; source: "Sur la nidification de l'Aigrette des récifs 'Egretta gularis' en Tunisie", M.Grussu, H. Dlensi, H. Azafzaf; http://www.scribd.com/doc/2665911/Note-sur-la-nidification-d e-lAigrette-des-recifs-en-Tunisie-

report status: event fully verified (QC2)

contact: Thilo Kühne, ESWD management [e-mail]

heavy rain

 

سيدي بوزيد | Sidi Bouzid  Sīdī Bū Zayd 
Tunisia (35.04 N, 9.49 E)
23-01-1990  (Tuesday)   12:00 UTC (+/- 12 hrs.)

based on: information from a newspaper report, a report on a website
number of people dead: 24
heavy rainfall; flash floods; at least 24 people killed in Tunisia; source: "At Least 24 Are Killed in Floods in Tunisia", THE NEW YORK TIMES, 26 JAN 1990;

report status: report confirmed (QC1)

contact: Thilo Kühne (ESWD management) [e-mail]

heavy rain

 

قفصة‎ | Gafsa  Qafşah 
Tunisia (34.42 N, 8.78 E)
23-01-1990  (Tuesday)   12:00 UTC (+/- 12 hrs.)

based on: information from a newspaper report, a report on a website
heavy rainfall; flash floods; at least 24 people killed in Tunisia; source: "At Least 24 Are Killed in Floods in Tunisia", THE NEW YORK TIMES, 26 JAN 1990;

report status: report confirmed (QC1)

contact: Thilo Kühne (ESWD management) [e-mail]

heavy rain

 

قابس | Gabès  Qābis 
Tunisia (33.88 N, 10.12 E)
23-01-1990  (Tuesday)   12:00 UTC (+/- 12 hrs.)

based on: information from a newspaper report, a report on a website
heavy rainfall; flash floods; at least 24 people killed in Tunisia; source: "At Least 24 Are Killed in Floods in Tunisia", THE NEW YORK TIMES, 26 JAN 1990;

report status: report confirmed (QC1)

contact: Thilo Kühne (ESWD management) [e-mail]

heavy rain

 

توزر | Tozeur  Tawzar 
Tunisia (33.92 N, 8.13 E)
23-01-1990  (Tuesday)   12:00 UTC (+/- 12 hrs.)

based on: information from a newspaper report, a report on a website
heavy rainfall; flash floods; at least 24 people killed in Tunisia; source: "At Least 24 Are Killed in Floods in Tunisia", THE NEW YORK TIMES, 26 JAN 1990;

report status: report confirmed (QC1)

contact: Thilo Kühne (ESWD management) [e-mail]

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