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Conclusions du FMI sur l'économie tunisienne (au titre de l'art. 4)

Publié par Eco-Tunisie sur 3 Août 2012, 21:26pm

Catégories : #Economie tunisienne

 

The economic downturn, particularly in the tourism sector, deteriorated the quality of the banks’ portfolio. In response, the central bank relaxed its regulatory requirements to allow banks to reschedule loans for companies affected by the recession and injected large amount of liquidity in the banking system to help banks in an environment of declining assets performance. As a result, most banks became heavily dependent on central bank’s refinancing.

Signs of a rebound have emerged in early 2012, with real GDP increasing by 4.8 percent (year-on-year) in the first quarter and tourism and FDI picking up. A recovery in real GDP growth would also be supported by a sizable growth-supporting fiscal expansion. However, risks to the short-term outlook are large and tilted to the downside, including a worse-than-anticipated recession in Europe which would depress exports, an escalation of domestic social tensions which would hamper foreign and domestic investment, and capacity constraints and delays in financing which could curb the envisaged growth-supporting fiscal stimulus. On the upside, a rapid stabilization of the situation in Libya could bolster investors’ confidence.

Tunisia’s medium-term economic growth potential remains favorable, but unleashing it requires a comprehensive package of structural reforms to foster private investment. Achieving higher and more inclusive growth over the medium term will be necessary to reduce high unemployment, especially among the youth, and address social and regional disparities. Real growth would gradually reach 6 percent by 2017 in a baseline scenario which assumes continued macroeconomic stability, improvement in governance and the business environment, reforms of the labor market and education system to address the labor skills mismatches, and a strengthening of the financial sector. Achieving higher growth will also require that large external financing, including FDI inflows and borrowing by the government and corporate sectors, can be mobilized.

 

 

Tunisia: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2008–13
 
        Est. Projections
  2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
 

Production and income (percent change)

           

Nominal GDP

10.9 6.3 7.8 2.2 8.6 8.2

Real GDP

4.5 3.1 3.0 -1.8 2.7 3.5

GDP deflator

6.1 3.1 4.7 4.1 5.8 4.6

Consumer price index (CPI), average

4.9 3.5 4.4 3.5 5.0 4.0

Gross national savings (percent of GDP)

22.1 21.9 21.6 16.8 18.1 18.9

Gross investment (percent of GDP)

25.9 24.8 26.4 24.1 25.1 25.9

External sector (percent change)

           

Exports of goods, f.o.b. (in $)

26.6 -24.8 14.0 8.5 0.9 5.3

Imports of goods, f.o.b. (in $)

28.7 -21.9 15.9 7.7 2.2 5.6

Exports of goods, f.o.b. (volume)

5.5 -9.6 6.7 -1.5 -1.5 4.8

Import of goods, f.o.b. (volume)

7.3 1.0 -1.8 -6.0 5.0 6.5

Trade balance (in percent of GDP)

-8.9 -8.5 -10.3 -10.4 -11.1 -11.4

Current account, excluding grants (percent of GDP)

-3.8 -2.8 -4.8 -7.3 -7.0 -6.9

Foreign direct investment (percent of GDP)

5.7 3.3 3.0 0.9 2.5 2.8

Terms of trade (deterioration -)

0.1 7.6 -9.6 -4.0 5.1 1.4

Real effective exchange rate (depreciation -) 1/

-0.7 -1.1 -0.5 -1.8 ... ...

Central government (percent of GDP, unless

           

otherwise indicated) 2/

           

Total revenue, excluding grants and privatization

23.8 23.1 23.3 24.7 23.8 23.0

Total expenditure and net lending

24.8 26.1 24.4 28.2 30.8 28.1

Central government balance, excluding grants and

           

privatization

-1.0 -3.0 -1.1 -3.5 -7.0 -5.1

Central government balance, including grants,

           

excluding privatization

-0.7 -2.7 -1.0 -3.2 -6.4 -5.0

Total government debt (foreign and domestic)

43.3 42.9 40.5 44.4 45.7 50.5

Foreign currency public debt (percent of total debt)

60.8 58.4 60.6 58.0 61.4 58.5

Money and credit (percent change)

           

Credit to the economy

14.0 10.3 19.6 13.5 5.7 ...

Broad money (M3) 3/

14.4 13.0 12.1 9.2 10.8 ...

Liquidity aggregate (M4)

14.2 12.7 12.2 9.2 10.8 ...

Velocity of circulation (GDP/M3)

1.62 1.52 1.46 1.37 1.34 ...

Interest rate (money market rate, percent, e.o.p) 4/

4.90 4.10 4.12 3.05 ... ...

Official reserves

           

Gross official reserves (US$ billions, e.o.p)

9.0 10.6 9.5 7.5 8.2 8.7

In months of imports of goods and services, c.i.f. 5/

4.4 6.6 5.1 3.8 4.0 4.0

Total external debt

           

External debt (US$ billions)

20.6 21.5 21.4 22.0 24.2 26.1

External debt (percent of GDP)

48.8 48.2 48.5 51.0 53.7 55.8

Debt service ratio (percent of exports of GNFS)

8.6 11.9 10.5 11.7 10.4 9.8

Financial market indicators

           

Stock market index 6/

2,892 4,292 5,113 4,722

Memorandum items:

           

GDP at current prices (TD millions)

55,296 58,768 63,380 64,802 70,402 76,182

GDP at current prices (US$ billions)

44.9 43.5 44.3 46.0 46.1 48.0

GDP per capita (US$)

4,346 4,171 4,199 4,320 4,284 4,409

Unemployment rate (percent) 7/

12.6 13.3 13.0 18.9 ... ...

Population (millions)

10.3 10.4 10.5 10.7 10.8 10.9

Exchange rate: dinar/US$ (average)

1.23 1.35 1.43 1.41
 

Sources: Tunisian authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.

1/ Information Notice System.

2/ Excludes the social security accounts.

3/ Financial system (deposit money banks and development banks).

4/ 2011 data is the money market rate on 10/17/2011.

5/ End-of-year reserves over current year imports of goods and services.

6/ TUNINDEX. (1000 = 12/31/1997), with 2011 data at 10/17/2011.

7/ New series based on the ILO definition of the labor force.

Source: http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pn/2012/pn1296.htm

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